Doug Lerner reports from Tokyo and St. Louis, and points beyond…

Posts tagged ‘earthquake’

That was a big earthquake just now – and house is still moving

That was one of the strongest earthquakes in a long while. And the house has been moving for several minutes still. No damage I think.

Cell phone earthquake alarm went off – but AFTER the earthquake was felt. Not much use in that.

Can’t open – will look at TV.

Magnitude 6.1. Not sure where the epicenter was, but on the Japanese scale it was 5+ out of 7.


Japan’s recovery from the earthquake and tsunami – amazing photos

Take a look at this article. It is filled with amazing before and after photos, from March of last year after the earthquake and tsunami, and how those same places look today. The change is amazing.…


Earthquake predictions and statistics: A 98 percent chance within 30 years and a 70 percent chance within four years mean the same thing

This puts the recent news that there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake hitting Tokyo within the next 4 years into perspective.

(parts from Mainichi Japan)

Last week Tokyoites were shocked by news indicating there was a 70 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake hitting the capital within four years.
The news caused a stir because it was based on projections by the authoritative Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) at the University of Tokyo. The facts behind the report are very interesting.

The initial report on the likelihood of a major quake appeared in The Yomiuri Shimbun’s Jan. 23 morning editions. In a front-page exclusive, the daily reported the news with the banner headline: “70% chance of magnitude-7 level Tokyo earthquake within 4 yrs.” The Nikkei, The Tokyo Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun followed suit in their evening editions and The Asahi Shimbun and The Sankei Shimbun caught up with them in their Jan. 24 editions. All trailing dailies had almost identical headlines.

TV stations quickly reported the news through their news departments as well as in other programs. Overwhelmed by a barrage of reports by news organizations, the ERI published a special explanation online to account for the reasons behind the Yomiuri report.

The fact is, the ERI’s study team had reported its predictions at an open forum last fall, and they were covered by the mass media. Looking back, the Mainichi Shimbun reported in its Sept. 17, 2011 editions that there was a 98 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake striking the metropolitan region within 30 years.

According to the ERI, a 98 percent chance within 30 years and a 70 percent chance within four years mean the same thing. But human beings, as they are, take the 30-year span lightly and are surprised by the four-year timeline. The Yomiuri keenly restructured the publicized data and emphasized the period “within four years,” causing a big public reaction and forcing other news outlets to follow suit.

Currently there is a run on earthquake preparedness goods.

Also, it should be pointed out that a magnitude-7 quake’s energy is one thousandth of the magnitude-9 Great East Japan Earthquake last March 11.

Info from:

Last year’s 3/11 earthquake – video that very closely shows what it was like for me

This YouTube video from 3/11/2011 at 2:46 pm is silent, but interesting.
It is taken in a 5th floor office in Koto-ku, which is right next to the ward I live in, less than 2 mi from my house. So the degree of shaking and the amount of things falling over is almost exactly the same as what I experienced here in Shinkoiwa.

Note how it builds up over the 2 minutes of the video.


Earthquake – 5 on the Japanese scale of 7

The earthquake just now was a 5 on the Japanese shindo scale of 0 to 7. I felt it in my house, and my monitor shook and the door swung a bit, but it was very short and there was no damage. No tsunami warning.

That makes the 1,750th earthquake of magnitude 4 or greater since 3/11 last year.


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