The Republicans are in bad shape no matter who they select:
If they choose Romney, in addition to the Mormon baggage, they will have a notorious flip-flopper on every social and economic issue there is. If the Republicans think they had a good time calling Kerry a flip-flopper the Democrats will truly have a made-for-order target in Romney. I read an analysis yesterday that showed, point-for-point, how Hillary’s health care plan, which Romney is now criticizing, is almost exactly the same as the one he supported and which has since gone into law in Massachusetts!
If they choose Giuliani, the Republican party will undoubtedly splinter off into a third party. The anti-abortion conservative Christian crowd, who feel they own the party, simply do not compromise on what they feel are their “core issues” and would rather destroy the party than see someone like Giuliani elected.
And who does that leave? The current second-tier of Thompson and McCain.
McCain would be the biggest challenge to Hillary, but he seems to be somewhat of a fading star this time around. And his views on Iraq do not resonate with public feeling this election cycle.
And Thompson has seemed to be nothing more than a two-dimensional, lackluster candidate with no real conviction or cause behind his candidacy. Not to mention his own background problems with the evangelical conservative Republican base.
Meanwhile, Hillary has risen in the polls so that she has the support of a majority of Democrats and beats any Republican candidate in head-to-head matchups.